Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:32:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
66 0x661d…6115 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15,635 (-21%) realized −$15,635 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,753per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$15,686
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.7% -12.0% 85% 54% -28.5%
≤30d 13 -2.7% -12.0% 85% 54% -28.5%
≤90d 13 -2.7% -12.0% 85% 54% -28.5%
all 13 -2.7% -12.0% 85% 54% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 54% -28.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 15% -35.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -41.6%
20% -35.2% 0% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$551 vs −$10,874 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15,635
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5,753
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,415 +$220 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5,466 +$936 +17%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4,976 +$492 +10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,909 −$1,896 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,802 +$77 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,529 +$304 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $406 +$98 +24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,222 +$209 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $972 +$249 +26%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $888 +$85 +10%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20,108 −$19,852 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $17,082 +$3,156 +18%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17,008 +$235 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,635 44m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,415 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $5,466 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 97¢ $5,468 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $4,976 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 77¢ $1,909 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $1,879 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $1,802 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $1,529 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $406 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $1,222 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $1,222 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $972 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $888 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 1¢ $256 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $20,108 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 84¢ $17,082 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $17,242 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $17,008 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records