Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x661c…695b other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$944 (-8%) realized −$940 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate68%25W / 12L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$691
other 47% −$360
crypto 1% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -14.6% -22.7% 68% 32% -17.3%
≤30d 37 -14.6% -22.7% 68% 32% -17.3%
≤90d 37 -14.6% -22.7% 68% 32% -17.3%
all 37 -14.6% -22.7% 68% 32% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.7% 32% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 11% -25.2%
15% -36.9% 5% -32.5%
20% -43.1% 0% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$177 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$601
Realized−$940
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses25 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage5d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 90¢ 88¢ $500 $490 −$10 (-2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Under 87¢ 96¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$64 -32%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -30%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $60 +$2 +3%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $101 +$27 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $301 +$19 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $200 +$15 +8%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $202 +$92 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $301 +$22 +7%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $602 +$73 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $502 +$73 +15%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 16 $812 +$196 +24%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $542 +$107 +20%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,091 +$93 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,402 −$1,395 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,238 +$165 +13%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $205 −$203 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $245 −$42 -17%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $183 −$104 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $72 +$29 +41%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $421 +$4 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $344 −$294 -85%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $360 +$11 +3%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $301 +$19 +6%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $461 +$55 +12%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $421 +$39 +9%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $422 −$2 -0%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $390 +$33 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 49¢ $138 19m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $12 40m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $62 1h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $320 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 86¢ $10 1h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 97¢ $60 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $301 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $501 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $105 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $216 3h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $294 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $322 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 89¢ $100 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 96¢ $50 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 95¢ $100 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 93¢ $200 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $301 5h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY No 89¢ $602 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $600.66 · official $600.66 (match) · 112 history records