Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x661a…ee60 other 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%27W / 49L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$7
world 33% $0
politics 14% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 +0.1% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
all 76 +0.7% -8.9% 36% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 1% -9.1%
10% -17.6% 1% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 1% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.04 per $1 lost it wins $3.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses27 / 49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage457d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 91¢ 89¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $42 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $48 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $78 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $41 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 16 $8 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 16 $3 $0 -7%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 16 $3 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jul 16 $1 $0 -38%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 16 $10 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 16 $26 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $9 $0 +3%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Jul 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 14 $46 $0 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 13 $2 $0 -15%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jul 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 10 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 44h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $41 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $42 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $22 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $19 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $42 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $42 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $13 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $23 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.66 · official $36.68 (match) · 307 history records