Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x6618…3733 sports 586 markets active 18h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$117 (+5%) realized +$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%302W / 284L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$69
14 days+$27
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$46
other 16% +$56
world 1% −$3
economics 0% −$3
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +46.5% +32.5% 70% 70% +41.1%
≤30d 259 +5.5% -4.5% 51% 50% -2.3%
≤90d 528 -5.1% -14.1% 47% 46% -11.1%
all 586 +3.0% -6.8% 52% 51% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 51% -5.7%
10% -15.7% 50% -14.7%
15% -23.9% 49% -22.9%
20% -31.3% 47% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses302 / 284
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)586 / 586
History coverage226d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 586 Trades
no open positions (187 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$4 +124%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 +$5 +114%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 +$4 +109%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$3 +83%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 +$4 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $4 +$4 +105%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $4 +$3 +70%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $3 +$5 +167%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2 +$3 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $2 +$2 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 +$5 +101%
Togo vs. Benin: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 +$5 +105%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +68%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$12 +244%
Ethiopia vs. Malawi: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 +$5 +90%
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. COD Meknès: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 +$5 +97%
DR Congo vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 +$5 +101%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 −$2 -38%
Tajikistan vs. India: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $10 +$5 +49%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 +$5 +93%
Kawkab AC vs. Raja Club Athletic: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
RCA Zemamra vs. UnionTouargaSports: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $3 +$5 +158%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $12 +$15 +120%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $5 +$11 +220%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $4 +$2 +52%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 08 $3 $0 +3%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Olympic Dcheira vs. HUS Agadir: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
RS Berkane vs. IR Tanger: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
FathUnionSport vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 17h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $5 21h
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $4 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $3 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $3 24h
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $8 5d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2 5d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2 5d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 5d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $2 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $2 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $2 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $2 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $2 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $2 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 6d
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 6d
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 6d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 6d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1056 history records