Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:57:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

66
0x6618…6881
weather · 374 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,009 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,051 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$307
Realized−$2,051
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses326 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)372 / 374
History coverage77d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 372 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$92
14 days−$36
30 days−$2,863
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $197 $200 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $105 $107 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $291 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $276 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $273 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $228 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $54 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $113 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $97 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $148 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $80 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $62 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 10 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $139 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $133 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $126 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $123 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $115 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $113 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $110 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 7? Jun 07 $51 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $47 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $19 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $70 −$70 -100%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 01 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $1,426 −$1,361 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? May 30 $883 +$15 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29? May 30 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $175 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 27? May 27 $317 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 27? May 27 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 27? May 27 $184 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 27? May 27 $764 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $910 −$238 -26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 27? May 26 $479 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on May 26? May 26 $41 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 26? May 26 $1,011 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $156 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $512 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 26? May 26 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 26? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$948
sports 1% −$1,091
crypto 0% −$1
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $134 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $105 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $301 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $27 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $55 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $188 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $14 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $277 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $13 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $21 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $218 23h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $280 24h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 72¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $172 28h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $58 28h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 93¢ $17 28h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 93¢ $26 28h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $231 31h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $48 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +4.2% -5.7% 100% 8% -6.5%
≤30d 93 -3.1% -12.3% 85% 3% -20.1%
≤90d 372 -1.3% -10.7% 88% 4% -11.7%
all 372 -1.3% -10.7% 88% 4% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 4% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 1% -20.1%
15% -27.0% 1% -27.9%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.02 · official $307.02 (match) · 3500 history records