Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6615…3e28 other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$144 (-15%) realized −$144 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$192
14 days−$103
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$100
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -28.1% -34.9% 36% 29% -34.1%
≤30d 19 -13.6% -21.8% 42% 37% -19.5%
≤90d 19 -13.6% -21.8% 42% 37% -19.5%
all 19 -13.6% -21.8% 42% 37% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 37% -19.5%
10% -29.3% 37% -27.2%
15% -36.1% 32% -34.2%
20% -42.4% 32% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$46 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage13d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $49 +$49 +99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$28 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $53 −$51 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$58 +112%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $52 +$123 +238%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$46 +91%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 +$80 +152%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $71 +$16 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 88¢ $99 12m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 11¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $42 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 11¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 11¢ $42 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 11¢ $7 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 19¢ $51 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 21¢ $50 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 94¢ $79 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $53 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $109 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $23 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $27 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $52 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $52 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 16¢ $9 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 16¢ $13 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 16¢ $13 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 16¢ $13 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 16¢ $0 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 16¢ $1 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 16¢ $0 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 29¢ $52 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $96 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records