Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

66
0x6614…9a75
world · 42 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
+$11 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$33
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 3 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 82¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 67¢ 79¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $17 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $106 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 24 $27 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 28 $1 $0 +3%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 10 $26 $0 +2%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $3 $0 +8%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $25 $0 -0%
Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9? May 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $27 +$2 +8%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Mar 29 $27 $0 -1%
Will 'A Working Man' gross less than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 29 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $26 +$1 +3%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 3m on opening weekend? Mar 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $0 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $24 +$1 +3%
Southern Indiana vs. UT Martin Mar 20 $18 +$6 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% $0
other 28% +$4
politics 10% $0
crypto 7% +$2
sports 7% +$6
finance 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $33 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 40h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $35 45h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $35 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $32 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $24 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $18 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $6 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $17 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $17 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $32 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $32 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $7 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 3d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $9 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $23 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $26 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $6 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 39 +1.5% -8.1% 38% 3% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 3% -8.5%
10% -16.9% 3% -17.2%
15% -25.0% 3% -25.2%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.31 · official $32.76 (match) · 116 history records