Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6614…8b33 crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-2%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%26W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 41% −$16
world 28% −$4
crypto 17% $0
other 14% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.2% -10.6% 25% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 6 -0.8% -10.3% 17% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 19 -1.0% -10.4% 68% 0% -11.5%
all 32 -0.6% -10.0% 81% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -11.3%
10% -18.6% 0% -19.8%
15% -26.5% 0% -27.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses26 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage106d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 22 $613 −$18 -3%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $168 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 18 $158 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $126 −$4 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $257 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 29 $141 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 05 $104 −$16 -16%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 9? May 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? Mar 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 23? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 21? Mar 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 16? Mar 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 14? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 11? Mar 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 9? Mar 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 75¢ $595 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 76¢ $153 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 77¢ $153 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 77¢ $153 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 77¢ $154 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $168 7h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $168 7h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 80¢ $160 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $158 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $122 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $126 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $136 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $137 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $120 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $120 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $141 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $141 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $34 48d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $52 61d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $14 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $12 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $14 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $14 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $10 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records