Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x660d…73d5 crypto 384 markets active 1h ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$441 (-5%) realized −$441 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate86%331W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$90
14 days−$160
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$169
politics 8% −$323
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 -2.9% -12.1% 92% 2% -12.0%
≤30d 382 -2.0% -11.4% 86% 26% -11.2%
≤90d 382 -2.0% -11.4% 86% 26% -11.2%
all 384 -2.2% -11.5% 86% 27% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 27% -14.1%
10% -20.0% 16% -22.3%
15% -27.7% 9% -29.9%
20% -34.8% 3% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$31 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$441
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses331 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)384 / 384
History coverage405d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 384 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $23 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $24 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 799 history records