Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x660c…99f8 crypto 440 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$3,894 (+44%) realized +$3,900 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%195W / 243L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day91.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$934
14 days+$703
30 days+$3,539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$3,557
weather 4% −$27
sports 3% +$17
other 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +33.7% +20.9% 38% 27% +72.5%
≤30d 438 +27.6% +15.5% 45% 37% +24.5%
≤90d 438 +27.6% +15.5% 45% 37% +24.5%
all 438 +27.6% +15.5% 45% 37% +24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.5% 37% +24.5%
10% ← realistic here +4.4% 33% +12.6%
15% -5.7% 29% +1.7%
20% -14.9% 26% -8.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$15 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,900
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses195 / 243
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)438 / 440
History coverage19d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day91.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 438 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -5%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $71 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $135 −$135 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $66 −$66 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $55 +$1,080 +1981%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $35 +$7 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $90 +$53 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$53 +1167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $38 +$237 +630%
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 3 Spain? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 92¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 91¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 93¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 57¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 59¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 87¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.12 (match) · 2128 history records