Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
66 0x6606…0195 weather 400 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$577 (+13%) realized +$558 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%152W / 244L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$535
7 days−$575
14 days−$333
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$644
politics 3% −$55
other 1% −$26
crypto 1% +$10
tech 0% −$15
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -74.1% -76.5% 10% 10% -71.8%
≤30d 99 +2.1% -7.6% 43% 41% -5.7%
≤90d 168 +31.7% +19.1% 43% 42% +3.7%
all 396 +15.1% +4.2% 38% 37% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 37% -1.4%
10% -5.8% 33% -10.9%
15% -14.9% 31% -19.5%
20% -23.2% 30% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$558
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses152 / 244
Open positions4
Markets (closed)396 / 400
History coverage149d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? Yes 46¢ 64¢ $53 $74 +$21 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $27 $29 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Yes 43¢ 50¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Yes 44¢ 32¢ $26 $19 −$8 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 +$30 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $46 −$19 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $21 −$6 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 −$12 -47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 27? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 12? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 22? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 28? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 21? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 11? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 28 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 12? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 22? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 14? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 14? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 20? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 8? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 6? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 27? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 20? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 4? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 6? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 4? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 3? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 26? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 18 $46 −$25 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 18 $25 +$25 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$8 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$25 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$12 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$10 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 −$15 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 55¢ $22 29m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 65¢ $14 20h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 35¢ $15 20h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 43¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 20h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 51¢ $18 20h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 57¢ $26 25h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 41¢ $26 27h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 46¢ $26 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 45¢ $26 27h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 27h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 70¢ $18 43h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 70¢ $17 43h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $9 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.00 · official $147.30 (match) · 1386 history records