Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6604…eeae sports 356 markets active 7h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate78%275W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$9
crypto 38% −$3
other 11% −$16
politics 5% +$3
world 4% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -17.2% -25.1% 56% 36% -12.5%
≤30d 45 -17.2% -25.1% 56% 36% -12.5%
≤90d 57 -20.3% -27.9% 56% 32% -13.6%
all 353 -3.0% -12.3% 78% 51% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 51% -11.0%
10% -20.7% 27% -19.5%
15% -28.3% 11% -27.3%
20% -35.4% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses275 / 78
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)353 / 356
History coverage161d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 56¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Databricks IPO before 2027? Yes 76¢ 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 54¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Apr 28 $1 $0 +7%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 28 $1 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 28 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 28 $1 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.23 · official $1.23 (match) · 1005 history records