Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6603…efa7 other 245 markets active 6h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$22
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$39
sports 23% −$18
politics 8% −$6
culture 5% −$4
economics 5% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
world 4% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 195 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 245 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)245 / 245
History coverage127d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 245 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $444 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $466 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $635 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $504 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $272 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $199 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $208 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $122 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $212 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $57 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $306 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $237 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $211 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,177 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $469 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $181 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $343 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 06 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $333 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $144 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $136 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $141 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $465 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $133 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 6h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $54 8h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 9h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 11h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 12h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 14h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 18h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 19h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 27h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 29h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 30h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 31h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $54 33h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 34h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 36h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 37h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 39h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 41h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $55 42h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $55 44h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $32 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $23 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1272 history records