Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:16:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6601…9a01 other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$40
politics 19% −$9
economics 10% −$4
sports 6% +$4
culture 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -2.5% -11.8% 10% 6% -9.7%
all 105 -2.5% -11.8% 10% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 6% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 6% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 5% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage88d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $190 $190 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $310 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $1,484 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $123 +$1 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $45 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $49 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $265 $0 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $280 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 16 $282 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 14 $268 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $265 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $285 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $271 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $273 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $266 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $265 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $281 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 05 $280 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $271 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $279 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $265 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $278 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $557 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 28 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $280 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $288 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $551 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $272 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $570 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $571 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $285 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 8h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $63 28h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $63 33h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $190 36h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 4d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 9d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 11d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 12d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 15d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $36 16d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $36 16d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 17d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 17d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.86 · official $189.86 (match) · 315 history records