Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:07:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6601…9e9f crypto 432 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1947 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$448 (-1%) realized −$445 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate24%195W / 630L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day1946.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,677
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1947 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-57.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 825 -53.3% -57.8% 24% 17% -17.4%
≤30d 825 -53.3% -57.8% 24% 17% -17.4%
≤90d 825 -53.3% -57.8% 24% 17% -17.4%
all 825 -53.3% -57.8% 24% 17% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1946.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.8% 17% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -61.8% 14% -25.3%
15% -65.5% 10% -32.5%
20% -68.9% 8% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$25 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$445
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses195 / 630
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)825 / 432
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$133
Trades / day1946.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 825 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 86¢ 96¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 5¢ 4¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $24 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $124 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $54 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $15 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $22 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $8 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $50 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $13 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $166 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $27 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.38 · official $43.63 · 3500 history records