Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:15:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x6600…d5fd sports 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,003 (+9%) realized +$960 · open +$43
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%118W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$297
7 days+$724
14 days+$740
30 days+$474
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$745
other 26% +$214
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +44.1% +30.4% 79% 79% +43.2%
≤30d 146 +1.3% -8.3% 51% 51% -4.8%
≤90d 212 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 53% -1.8%
all 221 +3.1% -6.7% 53% 52% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 52% -1.8%
10% -15.7% 50% -11.2%
15% -23.8% 46% -19.8%
20% -31.3% 43% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$49 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized+$960
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses118 / 103
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions6
Markets (closed)221 / 227
History coverage120d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 50¢ $102 $114 +$12 (+12%)
Austria leading at halftime? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $50 $98 +$48 (+96%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 46¢ $102 $91 −$11 (-11%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 54¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 50¢ 48¢ $31 $29 −$2 (-5%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 37¢ 26¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $146 +$141 +96%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $147 +$265 +180%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $76 +$77 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$41 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $146 −$144 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $112 +$113 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $131 +$104 +79%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $144 +$152 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $143 +$31 +22%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$35 +165%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $32 +$8 +24%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $37 +$5 +13%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $37 +$11 +31%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $32 −$31 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $37 +$34 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $29 +$34 +114%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $32 +$68 +216%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $27 +$25 +90%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $31 +$24 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $27 +$24 +86%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 07 $18 +$12 +65%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $27 +$34 +124%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $31 −$31 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $27 +$28 +101%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 07 $32 −$31 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $18 −$18 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $31 +$24 +76%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $27 −$27 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $27 −$27 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $32 −$31 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $27 +$30 +109%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $18 +$16 +90%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $37 +$38 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $36 −$36 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $36 −$36 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $18 −$18 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $37 −$36 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $27 +$33 +119%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $31 +$20 +65%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $18 +$18 +101%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $18 +$18 +97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $32 +$41 +129%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $9 +$6 +65%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $31 +$19 +62%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $18 −$18 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $18 −$18 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $32 −$31 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $31 +$26 +83%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $32 −$31 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $37 −$36 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $104 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $103 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $75 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $26 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $21 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $4 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $147 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $76 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $42 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $146 37h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $112 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $131 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $144 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $143 3d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 NORD 37¢ $21 3d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 80¢ $32 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 62¢ $32 3d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 76¢ $37 3d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 88¢ $37 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 51¢ $37 7d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $29 8d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 31¢ $32 9d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $27 9d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 50¢ $31 9d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 46¢ $32 9d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 38¢ $18 9d
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $27 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.45 · official $377.45 (match) · 424 history records