Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:45:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65fd…bd9b crypto 931 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$538 (-4%) realized −$538 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%431W / 500L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$175
7 days+$163
14 days+$214
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,795
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 242 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 45% -6.9%
≤30d 612 -5.7% -14.7% 57% 47% -11.0%
≤90d 924 -14.6% -22.7% 46% 39% -22.2%
all 931 -14.2% -22.3% 46% 39% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 39% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 30% -29.5%
15% -36.6% 24% -36.3%
20% -42.8% 20% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$538
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses431 / 500
Open positions0
Markets (closed)931 / 931
History coverage141d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 931 Trades
no open positions (412 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $44 +$35 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $46 −$24 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $111 +$82 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$9 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $64 +$52 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$20 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$9 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $161 +$136 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $13 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $59 +$26 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$37 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$30 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$7 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$17 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $38 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$17 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $45 +$34 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$20 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $24 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $28 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $34 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $7 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $79 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $44 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $194 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3121 history records