Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x65fc…beac other 212 markets active 19h ago coverage 352d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,256 (+26%) realized +$1,256 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%59W / 153L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$32
14 days+$28
30 days+$287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$917
tech 2% −$23
politics 1% +$72
world 1% −$8
culture 1% −$23
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +10.1% -0.4% 22% 22% +11.9%
≤30d 47 +2.4% -7.3% 34% 26% +5.7%
≤90d 109 +4.6% -5.4% 34% 29% +11.2%
all 212 +7.5% -2.7% 28% 25% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 25% +8.8%
10% -12.0% 23% -1.6%
15% -20.5% 19% -11.1%
20% -28.3% 17% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$11 · ×4.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

352d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,256
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses59 / 153
Open positions0
Markets (closed)212 / 212
History coverage352d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 212 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $82 −$43 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $14 +$31 +229%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $53 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $42 −$24 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$11 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $73 +$97 +133%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $32 −$9 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$4 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $63 +$4 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $99 +$79 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $14 −$5 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $52 −$28 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $44 −$25 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $13 −$4 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $156 −$55 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $201 +$52 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $123 −$21 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $119 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $47 −$14 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $78 −$20 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $43 −$20 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $35 −$18 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $35 +$3 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $31 +$7 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $38 −$36 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $21 −$14 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $14 −$8 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $21 +$52 +251%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $29 −$27 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $26 +$10 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $17 −$16 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $23 −$22 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $91 +$242 +266%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $18 −$5 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $44 +$6 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $11 +$3 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $6 −$2 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $7 −$2 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $31 +$106 +339%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $23 +$73 +322%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $14 +$20 +138%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $8 −$8 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $33 +$28 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 19h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 19h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 33h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $45 36h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $22 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $12 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $52 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $50 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $119 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 692 history records