trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -13.9% | -22.1% | 0% | 0% | -22.1% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -17.9% | -25.7% | 17% | 0% | -23.4% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -11.0% | -19.5% | 35% | 20% | -18.8% |
| all | 20 | -11.0% | -19.5% | 35% | 20% | -18.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.5% | 20% | -18.8% |
| 10% | -27.2% | 0% | -26.6% |
| 15% | -34.2% | 0% | -33.7% |
| 20% | -40.7% | 0% | -40.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 87¢ | 95¢ | $1 | $2 | +$0 (+9%) |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | Jun 15 | $3 | $0 | -14% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 29 | $3 | −$2 | -61% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | May 29 | $1 | $0 | -15% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? | May 28 | $1 | $0 | -10% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | May 27 | $4 | −$1 | -16% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 27 | $4 | $0 | +8% |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? | Apr 25 | $1 | $0 | +20% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap | Apr 21 | $2 | $0 | -27% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Apr 19 | $1 | $0 | +13% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Apr 15 | $1 | $0 | -18% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Apr 15 | $4 | $0 | +3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Apr 14 | $2 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | Apr 14 | $3 | $0 | -3% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Apr 12 | $6 | +$1 | +17% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Apr 12 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Apr 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Apr 12 | $1 | $0 | +17% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Apr 12 | $3 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Apr 12 | $2 | $0 | -18% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Apr 12 | $22 | −$4 | -17% |