Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:34:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

65
0x65f9…4425
weather · 593 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$126 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$185 · open −$59
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,816
Realized+$185
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses525 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions34
Markets (closed)618 / 593
History coverage16d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day208.6
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 34 History 618 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,765
7 days−$1,110
14 days−$855
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? No 99¢ 96¢ $890 $865 −$26 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? No 97¢ 98¢ $630 $637 +$7 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $510 $511 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 98¢ 95¢ $392 $380 −$12 (-3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $289 $288 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $248 $248 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $240 $241 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $220 $221 +$1 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $216 $220 +$3 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $192 $200 +$9 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 13? No 98¢ 96¢ $192 $188 −$4 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? No 95¢ 89¢ $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? No 98¢ 96¢ $180 $177 −$2 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? No 93¢ 76¢ $200 $164 −$36 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $123 $124 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $118 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 100¢ 99¢ $94 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $85 $85 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 91¢ 90¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 11? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on May 17? Jun 13 $135 −$135 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 26? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 14? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular Seas Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 17? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? Jun 13 $235 −$235 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 15? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 16? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on May 17? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 25? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 22? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on May 3? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 27? Jun 13 $167 −$167 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 17? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37-38°F on February 2 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 28? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on Mar Jun 13 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on May 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on February Jun 13 $0 −$514 -369633%
Honor of Kings: Godji Check vs Buriram United Esports (BO5) - RoV Pro Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Marc Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 17? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 17? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 26? Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 27? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on Mar Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on May 15? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 14? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on February 8? Jun 13 $95 −$95 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 27? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 60°F or higher on May 5? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 1 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 84°F or higher on April 18? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 28? Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 20? Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 24? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 18? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 29? Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 94% +$1,939
sports 4% +$235
world 1% +$22
other 0% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $682 18m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $30 19m
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $51 19m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $175 19m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 21m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 23m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $68 23m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $168 23m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $100 34m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $50 34m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $80 37m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $100 38m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $18 51m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $120 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY Yes 98¢ $392 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $192 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $248 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $143 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $646 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $607 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $220 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $143 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $120 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $217 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 323 -18.2% -26.0% 79% 3% -10.3%
≤30d 618 -8.7% -17.4% 85% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 618 -8.7% -17.4% 85% 5% -9.1%
all 618 -8.7% -17.4% 85% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover208.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 5% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 2% -17.8%
15% -32.5% 1% -25.7%
20% -39.1% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,816.31 · official $5,816.31 (match) · 3500 history records