Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
65 0x65f8…c542 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$79 (+16%) realized +$79 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip
Net edge+56%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$123
14 days+$74
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$80
politics 23% −$46
sports 4% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+55.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +165.9% +140.6% 58% 50% +22.0%
≤30d 21 +72.1% +55.7% 38% 33% +4.5%
≤90d 21 +72.1% +55.7% 38% 33% +4.5%
all 21 +72.1% +55.7% 38% 33% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +55.7% 33% +4.5%
10% +40.8% 33% -5.5%
15% +27.2% 33% -14.6%
20% +14.7% 24% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +72% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late +190% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$5 · ×3.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)21 / 30
History coverage14d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $5 +$3 (+161%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Yes 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $170 +$5 +3%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $120 +$53 +44%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$20 +982%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$27 +1290%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +172%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $114 −$46 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $170 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $120 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 13h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $2 4d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No $2 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $2 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.12 · official $12.12 (match) · 45 history records