Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65f7…ff15 weather 600 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$39 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%315W / 552L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$375
crypto 6% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-44.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 329 -79.6% -81.5% 11% 10% -82.5%
≤30d 514 -53.9% -58.3% 30% 29% -53.4%
≤90d 867 -39.1% -44.9% 36% 30% -37.4%
all 867 -39.1% -44.9% 36% 30% -37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.9% 30% -37.4%
10% ← realistic here -50.1% 22% -43.4%
15% -55.0% 13% -48.8%
20% -59.4% 7% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses315 / 552
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)867 / 600
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 867 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? No 66¢ 100¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? No 67¢ 100¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? No 76¢ 100¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? No 62¢ 100¢ $12 $19 +$7 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? No 65¢ 72¢ $15 $16 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? No 77¢ 78¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? No 60¢ 60¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? No 68¢ 64¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? No 56¢ 52¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? No 69¢ 63¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? No 65¢ 1¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? No 67¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$14 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 292 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Favbet (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playo Jun 16 $0 $0 +44%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Jun 16 $0 $0 -108%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs Game Hunters (BO3) - CCT South Ameri Jun 16 $0 $0 +169%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifie Jun 16 $0 $0 +205%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs ENCE Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 16 $0 $0 -64%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs K27 (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs Jun 16 $0 $0 -193%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup # Jun 16 $0 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Devils vs. Stars Jun 16 $0 −$2 -459%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Canucks vs. Golden Knights Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Flames vs. Ducks Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Kraken vs. Sabres Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Playoffs Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - CCT Europe Seri Jun 16 $0 $0 -133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $12 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $15 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $15 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 51¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 51¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $8 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $9 27h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $15 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $15 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $3 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $15 29h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $15 30h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $10 31h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $5 31h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 57¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.90 · official $171.80 · 3500 history records