Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
65 0x65f5…3c6c other 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 575d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$5
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 80% −$14
politics 15% −$9
other 3% +$13
sports 1% −$40
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +1.0% -8.6% 18% 6% -8.2%
≤90d 42 -6.0% -15.0% 29% 17% -12.1%
all 51 -5.1% -14.1% 27% 14% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 14% -9.8%
10% -22.3% 14% -18.4%
15% -29.9% 10% -26.3%
20% -36.7% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

575d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage575d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 18 $54 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 18 $7 +$8 +119%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 13 $44 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $105 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $49 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $49 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 13 $6 −$2 -26%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 +$8 +165%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $7 +$7 +104%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $12 +$1 +10%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $11 +$3 +29%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 06 $7 −$7 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelim Apr 06 $14 +$5 +34%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Apr 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Panthers vs. Rangers Apr 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $41 $0 +1%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 27 $26 +$13 +52%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $19 +$12 +61%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $77 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $13,533 −$14 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $22 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $15 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 23m
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 26h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 27h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 4d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 4d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $8 5d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 9d
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 17d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 99¢ $11 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 23d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $11 25d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.15 · official $6.15 (match) · 217 history records