Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:42:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65f5…47c7 crypto 528 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$379 (-7%) realized −$463 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate63%335W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$181
14 days−$285
30 days−$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$351
weather 13% −$116
other 1% +$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -8.0% -16.8% 66% 27% -16.2%
≤30d 462 -11.3% -19.8% 65% 35% -16.5%
≤90d 528 -11.5% -19.9% 63% 35% -17.8%
all 528 -11.5% -19.9% 63% 35% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 35% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 17% -25.7%
15% -34.6% 10% -32.9%
20% -41.0% 8% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$463
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses335 / 193
Open positions0
Markets (closed)528 / 528
History coverage43d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 528 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? No 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 7? Yes 89¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 19? No 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 15? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 7? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 11? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$29 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$58 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $56 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -74%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $56 +$4 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$3 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $56 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$24 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $68 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $66 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $66 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $65 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$15 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $51 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $22 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $50 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $108 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $50 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $56 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $59 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1425 history records