Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:36:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65f4…5222 sports 327 markets active 0h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$98 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%138W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$215
14 days+$359
30 days+$704
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$977
other 39% −$927
crypto 7% −$59
economics 3% +$106
world 1% −$73
tech 1% −$106
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +38.8% +25.5% 45% 45% +0.5%
≤30d 126 +28.7% +16.5% 44% 44% +7.7%
≤90d 283 +1.4% -8.2% 40% 40% -13.4%
all 310 +3.3% -6.6% 45% 42% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 42% -9.5%
10% -15.5% 40% -18.2%
15% -23.7% 38% -26.1%
20% -31.2% 33% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$40 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$98
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses138 / 172
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions8
Markets (closed)310 / 327
History coverage272d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 62¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 38¢ 10¢ $53 $15 −$38 (-72%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 17¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$29 +474%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $5 +$18 +344%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 +$23 +112%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$97 +238%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $56 +$52 +93%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$15 +75%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $7 +$14 +197%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $56 +$92 +165%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $162 −$160 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $87 −$85 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 −$80 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $66 −$65 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$69 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$127 +250%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $31 −$17 -55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 −$20 -78%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 +$22 +72%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $25 +$14 +57%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 +$12 +40%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 11 $5 +$28 +550%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $20 +$13 +65%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $12 +$76 +620%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $25 +$16 +65%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $35 +$22 +63%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 28m
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $20 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi BUY 19¢ $5 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY 25¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 17¢ $10 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $8 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $25 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 47¢ $10 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $10 4h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran BUY 13¢ $7 6h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran BUY 4¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 21h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 94¢ $19 25h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 94¢ $26 25h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 33¢ $5 27h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 56¢ $20 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.56 · official $50.78 · 831 history records