Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:38:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
65 0x65f3…5d6c politics 36 markets active 3h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$76 (+5%) realized +$75 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate66%21W / 11L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 35% +$34
politics 32% +$55
other 11% −$25
crypto 9% +$3
sports 6% +$5
world 5% −$7
culture 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.5% -2.7% 100% 0% -2.7%
≤30d 7 -5.0% -14.1% 71% 29% +0.0%
≤90d 32 -16.6% -24.5% 66% 28% -4.3%
all 32 -16.6% -24.5% 66% 28% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 28% -4.3%
10% -31.7% 16% -13.5%
15% -38.3% 3% -21.8%
20% -44.4% 0% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses21 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage90d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 90¢ 100¢ $48 $53 +$5 (+11%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $46 $49 +$3 (+6%)
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-21%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 56¢ 10¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $110 +$8 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $30 +$8 +27%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $39 +$2 +5%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $32 +$7 +22%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 21 $51 +$12 +24%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 18 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 02 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Aston Villa finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Le May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 30 $34 +$8 +22%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Apr 28 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (S Apr 17 $40 +$2 +5%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026? Apr 17 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $38 +$6 +15%
Will "The Truth & Tragedy of Moriah Wilson" be the #2 global Netflix m Apr 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 14 $19 $0 -2%
Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 20 Apr 14 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2 Apr 14 $50 +$3 +7%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Apr 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $60 +$26 +43%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 11 $40 +$1 +1%
ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10? Apr 11 $19 $0 +1%
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? Apr 02 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $62 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $55 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $56 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $46 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 86¢ $55 7d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $25 8d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $22 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 92¢ $20 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 92¢ $5 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 92¢ $1 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 92¢ $5 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 92¢ $12 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 92¢ $3 9d
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian par BUY Yes 28¢ $6 10d
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian par BUY Yes 28¢ $4 10d
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian par BUY Yes 28¢ $4 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $46 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 92¢ $46 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $46 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 95¢ $51 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 11? BUY Yes $0 11d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 92¢ $46 11d
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $41 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $39 21d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY No 78¢ $30 29d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 82¢ $32 30d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 98¢ $63 32d
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 34d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 13¢ $8 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.25 · official $114.25 (match) · 85 history records