Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65f2…9ace other 10 markets active 5h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-38%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$19
world 7% −$3
sports 4% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -35.6% -41.7% 25% 25% -52.3%
≤30d 8 -35.6% -41.7% 25% 25% -52.3%
≤90d 8 -35.6% -41.7% 25% 25% -52.3%
all 8 -35.6% -41.7% 25% 25% -52.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.7% 25% -52.3%
10% -47.3% 25% -56.9%
15% -52.4% 25% -61.1%
20% -57.1% 25% -64.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +226%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$6 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 6h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 31h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 37h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.33 · official $8.33 (match) · 15 history records