Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:15:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
65 0x65ee…08e0 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+9%) realized +$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$42
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$33
sports 12% −$10
crypto 6% +$6
world 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +21.9% +10.3% 75% 75% +21.4%
≤30d 13 +12.5% +1.8% 69% 69% +10.2%
≤90d 13 +12.5% +1.8% 69% 69% +10.2%
all 13 +12.5% +1.8% 69% 69% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 69% +10.2%
10% -7.9% 62% -0.3%
15% -16.8% 46% -9.9%
20% -25.0% 31% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage13d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$10 +50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$3 +34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$5 +89%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -77%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $12 −$12 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 43m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 20h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $8 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $17 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $12 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.59 · official $39.72 · 26 history records