Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:34:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65ec…a2f9 sports 1459 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$368 (-2%) realized −$367 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%757W / 701L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day36.8pace
Fees−$191est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$243
7 days−$112
14 days−$205
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$302
other 8% −$111
crypto 5% −$145
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 -7.4% -16.3% 48% 48% -13.4%
≤30d 727 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 51% -10.9%
≤90d 1458 -3.8% -13.0% 52% 51% -12.8%
all 1458 -3.8% -13.0% 52% 51% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 51% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 51% -21.2%
15% -28.9% 49% -28.8%
20% -35.9% 45% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$367
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses757 / 701
Est. fees paid−$191
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1458 / 1459
History coverage55d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day36.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Yufei Ren Yufei Ren 56¢ 54¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $14 +$12 +86%
ITF Blois: Lucie Nguyen Tan vs Despina Papamichail Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
ITF Saarlouis: Markus Malaszszak vs Marc Majdandzic Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Capitanes de Arecibo vs. Mets de Guaynabo Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Gyula: Abel Forger vs Pietro Fellin Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
ITF Mohammedia: Ekaterina Perelygina vs Martina Colmegna Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
ITF Klosters: Noah Karma vs Justin Schlageter Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
ITF Sapporo: Mutsumi Uemura vs Yuhan Liu Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Tiana Tian Deng vs Evialina Laskevich Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
ITF Luque: Marjorie Souza vs Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $9 +$10 +113%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti Jun 18 $11 +$8 +76%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 18 $11 −$1 -12%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $12 +$7 +57%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $8 +$10 +123%
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Chandrasekar/Yuzuki vs Balaji/Demoliner Jun 18 $12 +$10 +81%
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Keisuke Saitoh vs Hunter Heck Jun 18 $11 +$9 +79%
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Kristiana Sidorova Jun 18 $12 +$7 +59%
ITF Tokyo: Jangjun Kim vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 18 $12 +$9 +74%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Colin Sinclair Jun 18 $11 +$8 +67%
ITF Haskovo: Hibah Shaikh vs Lidia Encheva Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
ITF Maanshan: Hoyoung Roh vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 18 $11 +$9 +78%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $11 +$8 +73%
ITF Tokyo: Takuya Kumasaka vs Naoya Honda Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $9 +$11 +118%
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Hiroki Moriya Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $9 +$10 +114%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Parma (Doubles): Biryukov/Gadamauri vs Martinez/Izquierdo Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $22 −$11 -50%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Yufei Ren BUY Yufei Ren 56¢ $26 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL New York Mets 100¢ $26 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 53¢ $14 3h
ITF Blois: Lucie Nguyen Tan vs Despina Papamichail SELL Lucie Nguyen Tan 68¢ $14 3h
ITF Blois: Lucie Nguyen Tan vs Despina Papamichail BUY Lucie Nguyen Tan 48¢ $10 11h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche BUY Marco Cecchinato 44¢ $9 11h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 60¢ $12 11h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 53¢ $11 11h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 59¢ $12 11h
ITF Luque: Marjorie Souza vs Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso BUY Marjorie Souza 47¢ $9 12h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 49¢ $11 12h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 100¢ $19 12h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SELL Lotte Giants 48¢ $10 14h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 100¢ $20 14h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 46¢ $9 14h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 56¢ $11 14h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena SELL Sebastian Ofner 100¢ $19 14h
ITF Saarlouis: Markus Malaszszak vs Marc Majdandzic BUY Marc Majdandzic 49¢ $10 15h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 50¢ $10 15h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL Doosan Bears 100¢ $18 15h
ITF Mohammedia: Ekaterina Perelygina vs Martina Colmegna BUY Ekaterina Perelygina 55¢ $12 15h
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Chandrasekar/Yuzuki vs Balaji/Demoliner SELL Balaji/Demoliner 100¢ $22 15h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Patrick Schoen 54¢ $11 15h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 63¢ $12 15h
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Chandrasekar/Yuzuki vs Balaji/Demoliner BUY Balaji/Demoliner 55¢ $12 18h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 44¢ $8 18h
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Kristiana Sidorova SELL Hiromi Abe 95¢ $19 18h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 53¢ $11 18h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 52¢ $12 18h
ITF Klosters: Noah Karma vs Justin Schlageter BUY Justin Schlageter 55¢ $12 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.84 · official $24.61 (match) · 3065 history records