Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:02:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65ec…bad3 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+4%) realized +$73 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%24W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$14
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$85
sports 17% +$113
crypto 4% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -35.5% -41.6% 38% 36% -11.5%
≤30d 57 -4.0% -13.2% 42% 39% -4.6%
≤90d 57 -4.0% -13.2% 42% 39% -4.6%
all 57 -4.0% -13.2% 42% 39% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 39% -4.6%
10% -21.5% 30% -13.7%
15% -29.1% 26% -22.1%
20% -36.0% 18% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses24 / 33
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage9d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Yes 36¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals Yes 47¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $20 +$26 +126%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +14%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $20 +$10 +50%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Rafael Leão: 1+ assists Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Algeria to win the second half? Jun 23 $20 +$13 +64%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$19 +48%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$4 -36%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 −$4 -61%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$9 +26%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $43 +$20 +46%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 +$24 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$26 +65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $46 +$9 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 +$16 +50%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$29 +1420%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $46 1h
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $18 1h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $20 3h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Ghana? SELL No 99¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 7h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 38¢ $23 7h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Ghana? BUY No 98¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 17h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 17h
Rafael Leão: 1+ assists BUY Yes 14¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 20h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 22h
Algeria to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 22h
Algeria to win the second half? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 24h
Algeria to win the second half? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 24h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 24h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 26h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 38h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 41¢ $6 2d
New Zealand leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2d
New Zealand leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 2d
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 94 history records