Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65eb…e197 sports 621 markets active 2h ago coverage 1095d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,422 (-4%) realized −$1,384 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%247W / 372L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$217est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$39
14 days+$349
30 days+$822
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$1,004
other 19% +$1,432
crypto 12% −$1,393
world 5% −$1,550
economics 4% −$1,165
politics 2% +$162
weather 0% −$38
culture 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.5% -18.2% 43% 43% -1.1%
≤30d 55 -24.9% -32.1% 42% 29% +3.7%
≤90d 249 -6.9% -15.7% 49% 34% -1.9%
all 619 -10.6% -19.2% 40% 27% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 27% -13.4%
10% -26.9% 23% -21.7%
15% -34.0% 21% -29.2%
20% -40.4% 17% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$34 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1095d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,384
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses247 / 372
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$217
Open positions1
Markets (closed)619 / 621
History coverage1095d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 41¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $178 −$37 -21%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $60 +$60 +100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $69 +$32 +47%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $58 +$37 +64%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-0 Jun 17 $6 −$3 -57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $57 +$64 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $186 −$109 -58%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $34 +$16 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$30 +150%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $72 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $57 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $488 +$200 +41%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $117 +$9 +8%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $100 +$54 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $21 +$8 +37%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $290 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $261 +$32 +12%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $250 +$10 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton May 28 $16 +$12 +76%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League S May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $3 −$2 -59%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 26 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 26 $21 +$9 +42%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America S May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - BC Game Masters May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 26 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner May 23 $19 +$28 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs ex-KRÜ Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Se May 22 $140 −$113 -80%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 22 $3 $0 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $135 −$28 -21%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner May 21 $779 +$282 +36%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN - Map 2 Winner May 21 $304 −$59 -20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - CS Asia Championship May 21 $31 −$17 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $63 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 63¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 41¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 53¢ $78 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 92¢ $138 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 50¢ $60 3h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $69 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $37 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $10 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $58 30h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-0 SELL 11¢ $3 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-0 BUY 25¢ $6 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $57 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 2¢ $4 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 2¢ $0 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 68¢ $34 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $2 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $15 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $16 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $65 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $9 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 63¢ $57 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $9 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $11 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $12 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 2213 history records