Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
65 0x65e9…b443 finance 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$112 (+1%) realized +$113 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$1,650per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 88% +$102
other 12% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 50% +2.6%
≤30d 2 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 50% +2.6%
≤90d 4 +4.3% -5.7% 75% 25% -8.3%
all 4 +4.3% -5.7% 75% 25% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 25% -8.3%
10% -14.7% 0% -17.0%
15% -22.9% 0% -25.0%
20% -30.5% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$38 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$962
Realized+$113
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage70d
Avg bet$1,650
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $962 $962 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 17 $840 +$115 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 17 $27 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 29 $803 +$24 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 28 $5,615 −$38 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $961.50 · official $961.50 (match) · 18 history records