Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65e7…0609 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 29L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$14
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$14
other 17% $0
politics 15% $0
sports 7% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.2% -7.6% 33% 8% -8.0%
≤30d 14 +1.2% -8.4% 36% 7% -8.1%
≤90d 14 +1.2% -8.4% 36% 7% -8.1%
all 40 +0.5% -9.1% 28% 2% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -8.5%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×8.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.04 per $1 lost it wins $7.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage268d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $85 $85 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $78 +$6 +7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $73 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $45 +$8 +18%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $93 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $73 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $64 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $54 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $5 $0 -0%
James Comey arrested by September 30? Sep 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 29 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $9 $0 +3%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Syria by September 30? Sep 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $85 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $30 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $18 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $36 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $63 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $16 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $55 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $18 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $73 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $23 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $42 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $31 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $55 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $53 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 60¢ $45 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $66 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $58 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $17 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $52 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $43 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $27 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.17 · official $85.17 (match) · 128 history records