Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65e6…3289 weather 579 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$260 (-13%) realized −$279 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%226W / 339L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$179
14 days−$179
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -1.9% -11.2% 32% 28% -27.5%
≤30d 206 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 29% -27.2%
≤90d 565 -11.7% -20.1% 40% 38% -21.6%
all 565 -11.7% -20.1% 40% 38% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 38% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 33% -29.1%
15% -34.7% 29% -36.0%
20% -41.1% 22% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$279
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses226 / 339
Open positions14
Markets (closed)565 / 579
History coverage56d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 565 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 37¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$3 (+426%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+426%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 22¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+358%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+144%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 10? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 10? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 11? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +367%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -89%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$6 +215%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 35¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.15 · official $19.80 (match) · 1846 history records