Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:31:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65e2…a4c4 sports 288 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$540 (+4%) realized +$546 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%110W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$159est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$271
7 days+$348
14 days+$436
30 days+$500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$852
other 7% −$101
crypto 2% −$168
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +22.4% +10.7% 43% 36% +3.0%
≤30d 72 -4.3% -13.4% 36% 31% -0.4%
≤90d 173 +3.7% -6.1% 45% 38% -4.9%
all 278 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 35% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 35% -6.2%
10% -18.4% 33% -15.1%
15% -26.3% 28% -23.3%
20% -33.5% 26% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$26 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$546
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses110 / 168
Est. fees paid−$159
Open positions6
Markets (closed)278 / 288
History coverage117d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 278 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $807 +$137 +17%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $130 +$31 +24%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $187 +$219 +117%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $33 +$1 +2%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 +$102 +101%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 +$18 +51%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$241 +240%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $357 −$183 -51%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $62 −$13 -20%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $140 +$57 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $137 +$10 +7%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $19 −$6 -33%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $189 −$188 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 +$28 +246%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2 Jun 12 $20 +$42 +205%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 +$30 +980%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $14 $0 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $77 +$1 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $13 +$13 +101%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $8 +$5 +64%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $49 +$53 +109%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 +$11 +234%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $48 +$16 +34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $20 −$11 -54%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5 −$1 -22%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 01 $55 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $75 −$74 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 01 $65 −$65 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 01 $69 +$15 +22%
Roland Garros WTA: Laura Siegemund vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 92¢ $945 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 78¢ $807 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $71 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 94¢ $161 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $57 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $73 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $402 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 45¢ $4 28h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $187 28h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 18¢ $33 28h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 17¢ $33 29h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals AND Cristiano Ronald BUY 39¢ $6 32h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ BUY 18¢ $15 32h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $5 32h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $204 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $54 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $36 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $37 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $341 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $174 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 47¢ $174 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $184 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 49¢ $49 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $62 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 87¢ $197 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.76 · official $41.81 (match) · 747 history records