Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:59:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65de…9846 sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,011 (-2%) realized −$8,222 · open +$211
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate74%42W / 15L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,616per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$9,849now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 173d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$6,613
other 37% −$6,854
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +5.6% -4.5% 62% 54% -13.0%
≤30d 14 -2.0% -11.3% 57% 50% -15.4%
≤90d 14 -2.0% -11.3% 57% 50% -15.4%
all 57 -3.4% -12.6% 74% 35% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 35% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 19% -21.7%
15% -28.6% 7% -29.3%
20% -35.6% 7% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$9,629) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$718 vs −$3,132 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$9,849
Realized−$8,222
Unrealized+$211
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses42 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage173d
Avg bet$5,616
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $9,638 $9,849 +$211 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $14,796 −$5,073 -34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6,162 −$3,389 -55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12,541 +$1,504 +12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10,069 +$1,192 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,043 +$1,563 +51%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10,809 +$3,095 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10,072 −$1,875 -19%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10,588 +$2,104 +20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7,077 −$3,492 -49%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10,000 −$4,433 -44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,043 +$2,726 +90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,469 +$322 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,032 +$1,655 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,015 −$3,000 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 21 $5,621 +$359 +6%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 20 $8,402 −$5,378 -64%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 18 $10,010 +$990 +10%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela Mar 17 $54 +$14 +27%
Final Stage: Canada vs. USA Mar 14 $10,000 +$1,628 +16%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy Mar 11 $12,719 −$7,276 -57%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Czechia Mar 10 $59,480 +$1,245 +2%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Mexico Mar 10 $8,000 +$1,639 +20%
First Round Pool D: Israel vs. Dominican Rep. Mar 10 $808 +$19 +2%
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea Mar 09 $2,410 +$602 +25%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Mar 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-11.5) Mar 09 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) Mar 09 $661 −$657 -99%
Spread: Clippers (-14.5) Mar 09 $1,137 −$1,137 -100%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Australia Mar 09 $6,496 +$725 +11%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Great Britain Mar 08 $9,629 +$824 +9%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea Mar 07 $4,412 +$377 +8%
First Round Pool C: Czechia vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 07 $1,000 +$206 +21%
First Round Pool D: Dominican Rep. vs. Nicaragua Mar 07 $1,734 +$321 +18%
First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan Mar 06 $6,221 +$532 +9%
Pelicans vs. Magic Mar 06 $2,000 −$688 -34%
Hawks vs. Nuggets Jan 10 $16,618 +$4,964 +30%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Jan 10 $10,000 −$6,853 -68%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jan 07 $10,000 +$333 +3%
Hawks vs. Raptors Jan 06 $1,000 +$249 +25%
Knicks vs. Pistons Jan 06 $2,760 +$112 +4%
Spread: Bucks (-6.5) Jan 05 $599 +$24 +4%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Jan 05 $1,030 +$38 +4%
Rockets vs. Mavericks Jan 04 $2,000 +$81 +4%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jan 04 $2,000 +$221 +11%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jan 04 $531 +$24 +4%
76ers vs. Knicks Jan 04 $1,728 +$70 +4%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 04 $100 +$34 +34%
Spread: Magic (-4.5) Jan 03 $50 +$5 +10%
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5) Jan 03 $11 $0 +0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5) Jan 03 $60 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $9,730 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 58¢ $7,287 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 58¢ $2,436 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,776 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 30¢ $2,773 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $12,019 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $6,162 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $12,541 37h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $4,768 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $2,174 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $6 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $149 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $15 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $6 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $3 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $120 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $600 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $36 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,476 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $3,043 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $10,069 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $4,726 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $9,178 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10,809 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 63¢ $8,197 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,848.78 · official $9,850.19 (match) · 652 history records