Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x65dc…2a02 other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$47 (+0%) realized +$49 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate56%31W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$47
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% +$2
world 30% +$24
other 17% +$17
tech 2% +$13
sports 2% −$10
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% +$2
culture 1% −$5
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +25.9% +13.9% 100% 80% +16.9%
≤30d 5 +25.9% +13.9% 100% 80% +16.9%
≤90d 21 +14.7% +3.7% 86% 48% +7.7%
all 55 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 25% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 25% -9.1%
10% -15.0% 18% -17.8%
15% -23.2% 7% -25.8%
20% -30.7% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses31 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage229d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 86¢ 85¢ $155 $153 −$2 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 21 $17 +$3 +15%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $92 +$36 +39%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 21 $4 +$2 +46%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M Jun 21 $26 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 21 $23 +$7 +28%
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral May 20 $16 +$3 +16%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? May 20 $15 +$4 +26%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 07 $18 +$33 +186%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri Apr 24 $14 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 21 $14 $0 +2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 21 $19 −$9 -49%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 21 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungari Apr 21 $18 +$6 +32%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31? Apr 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026? Apr 01 $18 $0 +1%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 01 $18 +$1 +4%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? Apr 01 $21 +$1 +6%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 01 $21 +$3 +12%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $18 +$6 +33%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese Mar 08 $15 +$2 +11%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Feb 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 6 to F Feb 14 $25 +$2 +6%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 13 $1,602 −$2 -0%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 13 $6 +$1 +25%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 11 $1,613 −$2 -0%
Bucks vs. Magic Feb 11 $6 +$1 +25%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Feb 11 $6 +$3 +41%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 mil Feb 05 $21 −$3 -12%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 04 $1,524 −$3 -0%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $3,262 −$13 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $1,579 −$2 -0%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 29 $31 +$3 +9%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 22 $15 −$2 -14%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $57 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Osasuna win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 11 $18 −$6 -33%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Dec 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 07 $59 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 06 $10 −$5 -50%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 30 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $156 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $128 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 85¢ $17 31d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $4 31d
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M BUY No 99¢ $26 31d
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral BUY Yes 86¢ $16 44d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 77¢ $23 44d
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 54d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 54d
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $14 57d
Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri SELL No 95¢ $14 57d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $92 60d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 60d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 99¢ $14 60d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 60d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 60d
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? BUY Yes 79¢ $15 71d
Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungari BUY Yes 76¢ $18 71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 97¢ $14 78d
Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri BUY No 97¢ $14 81d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $16 81d
Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $16 81d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 81d
US strike on Mexico by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $19 81d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $22 81d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $24 81d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? BUY No 94¢ $21 91d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $21 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.32 · official $198.32 (match) · 202 history records