Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

65 0x65d9…7875 sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$883 (+69%) realized +$884 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +170% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +134% what you keep after slip

Net edge+134%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$424per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$454now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 604d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+143.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+284.6%	+248.0%	100%	100%	+248.0%
≤30d	1	+284.6%	+248.0%	100%	100%	+248.0%
≤90d	1	+284.6%	+248.0%	100%	100%	+248.0%
all	2	+169.5%	+143.9%	100%	100%	+57.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+143.9%	100%	+57.1%
10%	+120.5%	100%	+42.0%
15%	+99.2%	100%	+28.3%
20%	+79.7%	100%	+15.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +285% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +170% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$442 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage

Net worth$454

Realized+$884

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage604d

Avg bet$424

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	53¢	52¢	$70	$69	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$102	+$285	+278%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 08	$1,100	+$599	+54%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	53¢	$71	1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	26¢	$102	10h
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	57¢	$100	595d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	66¢	$1,000	603d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $453.95 · official $453.95 (match) · 5 history records