Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
65 0x65d7…92bc other 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$36 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%42W / 49L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$33
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$9
world 26% +$37
other 20% +$4
economics 12% −$3
sports 4% −$4
tech 1% −$4
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 57% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 17 +18.6% +7.3% 53% 12% -6.9%
≤90d 30 +11.0% +0.4% 43% 10% -8.9%
all 91 +3.2% -6.6% 46% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 4% -8.9%
10% -15.5% 3% -17.6%
15% -23.7% 3% -25.6%
20% -31.2% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses42 / 49
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage454d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $138 $139 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $109 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $122 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $132 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $133 −$1 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $111 −$2 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $12 +$29 +248%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $142 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +61%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $105 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $69 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $102 +$3 +3%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $141 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $40 −$4 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $24 +$5 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $148 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 18 $146 −$6 -4%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 03 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $202 −$1 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $478 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $554 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $554 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Mar 30 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 27 $24 +$1 +3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 24 $2 $0 -7%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 19 $9 −$3 -36%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 02 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 02 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 01 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $138 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 98¢ $84 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 98¢ $27 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $15 45h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $93 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 85¢ $89 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 85¢ $34 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $118 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $132 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $132 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $133 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $133 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $13 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.12 · official $139.12 (match) · 362 history records