Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

65 0x65d7…90b3 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$61 (+5%) realized +$85 · open −$24

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown87%max

Avg bet$130per market

Trades / day9.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit30%portable

Net worth$439now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-22.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-13.8%	-22.0%	67%	33%	-7.4%
≤30d	6	-13.8%	-22.0%	67%	33%	-7.4%
≤90d	6	-13.8%	-22.0%	67%	33%	-7.4%
all	6	-13.8%	-22.0%	67%	33%	-7.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.0%	33%	-7.4%
10%	-29.5%	33%	-16.3%
15%	-36.3%	33%	-24.4%
20%	-42.5%	17%	-31.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs −$40 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.22 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$439

Realized+$85

Unrealized−$24

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)6 / 10

History coverage1d

Avg bet$130

Trades / day9.1

Drawdown87%

Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	51¢	50¢	$400	$396	−$4 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 22?	Yes	28¢	18¢	$54	$34	−$20 (-36%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 22	$50	+$5	+10%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$30	−$30	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$505	+$42	+8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$51	+$26	+51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$52	+$25	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 22?	BUY Yes	28¢	$55	1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL No	86¢	$56	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$30	11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$406	11h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	11h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY No	77¢	$50	11h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY No	78¢	$50	11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	97¢	$547	11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$505	17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	43¢	$92	18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	98¢	$77	23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$52	35h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.22 · official $439.22 (match) · 15 history records