Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x65d7…fbd0 crypto 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$542 (+21%) realized +$432 · open +$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate41%33W / 48L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$970now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days+$217
14 days+$217
30 days+$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$364
other 29% +$110
finance 12% +$29
crypto 11% +$74
politics 4% −$83
tech 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +65.8% +50.0% 100% 100% +77.4%
≤30d 68 -8.6% -17.3% 34% 24% +34.5%
≤90d 72 -6.5% -15.4% 38% 28% +26.4%
all 81 -6.2% -15.1% 41% 30% +12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 30% +12.0%
10% -23.2% 22% +1.3%
15% -30.6% 16% -8.5%
20% -37.4% 12% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$3 · ×5.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.57 per $1 lost it wins $3.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$970
Realized+$432
Unrealized+$110
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses33 / 48
Open positions5
Markets (closed)81 / 86
History coverage162d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $440 $440 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 62¢ 89¢ $200 $287 +$87 (+43%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 70¢ 80¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 58¢ 64¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $176 +$211 +120%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 01 $100 +$98 +98%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 30 $1 +$3 +331%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 30 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 30 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 30 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 30 $1 +$9 +841%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 30 $1 +$2 +156%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $441 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $387 27h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $176 45h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $100 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $133 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 62¢ $205 12d
Nothing Ever Happens: May SELL Nothing 100¢ $198 19d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $101 21d
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $970.13 · official $970.13 (match) · 181 history records