Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:59:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
65 0x65d0…db29 crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$423 (-5%) realized −$423 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate86%48W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$16
other 26% +$8
tech 8% −$162
politics 7% +$4
world 4% +$42
sports 4% −$300
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 16 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 56 -4.9% -14.0% 86% 2% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 2% -14.3%
10% -22.2% 2% -22.5%
15% -29.7% 2% -30.0%
20% -36.6% 2% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$64 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$375
Realized−$423
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses48 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage556d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $215 $216 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $152 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $122 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? Jun 01 $168 $0 +0%
Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates in May? Jun 01 $35 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 07 $170 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike India by April 30, 2026? May 06 $30 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? May 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 06 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 7? Apr 28 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Apr 06 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? Apr 06 $141 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 06 $190 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 09 $150 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Mar 09 $245 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 08 $125 +$1 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 07 $200 −$162 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026 Feb 05 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 05 $140 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 5-11? Jan 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? Jan 11 $310 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $330 +$6 +2%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 21? Dec 01 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 21 $300 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 09 $125 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? Nov 09 $170 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 31 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 October 13-19? Oct 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 13? Oct 19 $310 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? Oct 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by September 30? Oct 13 $115 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 20 $150 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5100 August 11–17? Aug 19 $198 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 1–August 8? Aug 16 $190 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 06 $190 +$2 +1%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Jul 28 $190 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400–424 times June 6–13? Jul 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13? Jul 10 $145 +$1 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 10 $180 +$1 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio May 20 $48 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? Apr 23 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Apr 07 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 17 $150 +$15 +10%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Feb 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $160 1h
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $152 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $215 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $122 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $20 36d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $150 38d
Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates in May? BUY No 99¢ $35 38d
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $168 48d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $170 48d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $35 48d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $20 48d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $115 55d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $75 78d
Will Iran strike India by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 78d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $133 78d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $100 78d
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $45 88d
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 92d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $141 106d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $190 106d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? BUY No 100¢ $245 116d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 134d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $126 134d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $38 136d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 137d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026 BUY No 91¢ $15 150d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $125 157d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $140 163d
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $200 163d
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $310 185d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.74 · official $374.74 (match) · 115 history records