Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:14:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
65 0x65cc…9e41 crypto 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$99 (+4%) realized +$97 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate71%64W / 26L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$202
14 days+$225
30 days+$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$154
other 19% +$29
sports 5% +$40
tech 2% −$29
weather 0% +$8
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +17.5% +6.3% 84% 61% +0.6%
≤30d 87 +16.4% +5.3% 74% 60% +1.1%
≤90d 87 +16.4% +5.3% 74% 60% +1.1%
all 90 +12.5% +1.8% 71% 58% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 58% -1.8%
10% -8.0% 46% -11.2%
15% -16.8% 39% -19.8%
20% -25.0% 28% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses64 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)90 / 94
History coverage202d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $125 −$21 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $76 −$16 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $127 +$50 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $125 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 29 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $35 +$3 +8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +134%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$7 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.94 · official $41.94 (match) · 193 history records