Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65cc…fbdf crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$16 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day102.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$265
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -14.7% -22.9% 43% 43% -20.7%
≤30d 46 -14.7% -22.9% 43% 43% -20.7%
≤90d 46 -14.7% -22.9% 43% 43% -20.7%
all 46 -14.7% -22.9% 43% 43% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 43% -20.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 39% -28.3%
15% -37.0% 39% -35.2%
20% -43.2% 30% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$38 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day102.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $83 +$81 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $81 +$67 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $107 −$104 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$63 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $130 −$125 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$40 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$52 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $130 +$24 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$36 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$46 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $117 −$81 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$15 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$26 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $108 −$103 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$26 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$34 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $81 −$77 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$5 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$36 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$16 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$48 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$30 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$27 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $61 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $58 +$28 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$23 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $47 −$46 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $34 −$17 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$14 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$30 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$28 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $165 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $83 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $81 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $167 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $156 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $154 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $64 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $27 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $27 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $73 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $27 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $28 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $28 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $27 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $10 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 109 history records