Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x65c9…cf56 sports 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,568 (-2%) realized −$1,568 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate70%101W / 43L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$596per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$1,115est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$392
7 days−$392
14 days−$392
30 days−$2,186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,496
other 4% −$224
world 2% −$463
culture 1% +$31
crypto 0% −$76
tech 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +7.0% -3.2% 67% 50% -18.3%
≤30d 144 +8.7% -1.6% 70% 54% -11.8%
≤90d 144 +8.7% -1.6% 70% 54% -11.8%
all 144 +8.7% -1.6% 70% 54% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 54% -11.8%
10% -11.0% 40% -20.3%
15% ← realistic here -19.6% 21% -28.0%
20% -27.5% 13% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$780) neutral
Persistence
early +13% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$371 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,568
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses101 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,115
Open positions0
Markets (closed)144 / 144
History coverage27d
Avg bet$596
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 144 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $192 +$112 +58%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $48 +$10 +22%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $78 +$7 +9%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $92 +$41 +45%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $150 +$15 +10%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 Jun 17 $48 −$6 -12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $299 +$92 +31%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $168 −$165 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $133 +$36 +27%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $259 −$127 -49%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $158 +$102 +65%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2,409 −$509 -21%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $1,985 −$1,957 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $949 −$936 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $1,765 −$24 -1%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $969 −$451 -47%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $501 −$249 -50%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $856 −$291 -34%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $1,293 −$541 -42%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $961 +$127 +13%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $187 +$103 +55%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $613 −$290 -47%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $702 −$78 -11%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $530 +$83 +16%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $417 +$45 +11%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $195 +$52 +27%
Game Handicap: TT (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 02 $474 +$226 +48%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $267 +$176 +66%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $393 +$72 +18%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $388 +$59 +15%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $672 +$463 +69%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $860 −$588 -68%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Falcons Force (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eu Jun 01 $45 +$15 +33%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 01 $119 −$118 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $615 +$152 +25%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $457 −$136 -30%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 01 $878 +$521 +59%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $511 +$13 +2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $89 −$36 -40%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 01 $204 +$41 +20%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $321 +$35 +11%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $297 +$50 +17%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $151 +$74 +49%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) May 31 $253 +$87 +34%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $232 +$60 +26%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $354 +$185 +52%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $893 +$313 +35%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 31 $1,760 +$626 +36%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,809 −$850 -47%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $2,021 −$241 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 78¢ $58 24m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $48 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 82¢ $85 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $133 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 74¢ $78 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 96¢ $165 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 SELL Under 74¢ $42 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $150 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 83¢ $48 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 63¢ $192 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL 82¢ $391 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY 62¢ $299 9h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $92 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 40¢ $168 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $169 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 78¢ $133 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 36¢ $132 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $259 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $158 29h
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $0 30h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1,985 14d
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $949 14d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $597 14d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $9 14d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $217 14d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $3 14d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $8 14d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $9 14d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $9 14d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 618 history records