Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
65 0x65c7…5330 sports 4 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$98 (+25%) realized +$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +28.7% +16.4% 100% 100% +11.6%
≤30d 4 +28.7% +16.4% 100% 100% +11.6%
≤90d 4 +28.7% +16.4% 100% 100% +11.6%
all 4 +28.7% +16.4% 100% 100% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.4% 100% +11.6%
10% +5.3% 50% +0.9%
15% -4.9% 25% -8.8%
20% -14.2% 0% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $51 +$25 +50%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $151 +$29 +19%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $153 +$27 +18%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $39 +$11 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $39 26h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $51 26h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 26h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 59¢ $96 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 56¢ $95 26h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $100 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.00 · official $50.00 (match) · 12 history records