Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:38:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

65 0x65c7…d575 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$299 (+20%) realized +$300 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate73%11W / 4L

Drawdown32%max

Avg bet$67per market

Trades / day6.3pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit23%portable

Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+16.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+28.6%	+16.3%	73%	67%	+28.0%
≤30d	15	+28.6%	+16.3%	73%	67%	+28.0%
≤90d	15	+28.6%	+16.3%	73%	67%	+28.0%
all	15	+28.6%	+16.3%	73%	67%	+28.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+16.3%	67%	+28.0%
10%	+5.2%	60%	+15.8%
15%	-5.0%	60%	+4.6%
20%	-14.3%	47%	-5.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 53% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +29% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +65% → late -3% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$51 vs −$38 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.75 per $1 lost it wins $3.75

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$119

Realized+$300

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)73%

Wins / losses11 / 4

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions4

Markets (closed)15 / 22

History coverage5d

Avg bet$67

Trades / day6.3

Drawdown32%

Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	70¢	70¢	$30	$30	+$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	No	59¢	58¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	59¢	58¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Morocco	63¢	62¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$50	+$8	+16%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$13	−$9	-69%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$214	+$99	+46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$71	+$44	+62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$101	−$101	-100%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran?	Jun 21	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$71	+$34	+48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$270	+$195	+72%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$30	+$22	+73%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$21	$0	+0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$20	+101%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	Jun 20	$51	+$105	+206%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$18	+91%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$20	+$17	+82%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	59¢	$30	1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	63¢	$30	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	70¢	$30	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	59¢	$30	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$50	20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? A	BUY	49¢	$152	21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	1¢	$4	31h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	3¢	$13	36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$313	36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$123	39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$91	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	2d
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran?	BUY Yes	30¢	$31	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	62¢	$126	3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$71	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$104	3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-2	BUY	64¢	$71	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$71	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$465	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	22¢	$21	3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$21	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	38¢	$7	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	69¢	$141	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$53	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$30	3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$21	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$41	4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	49¢	$20	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	52¢	$20	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.99 · official $118.99 (match) · 41 history records