Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65c7…1e1b crypto 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$216 (+5%) realized +$218 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate38%53W / 88L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days+$65
14 days−$10
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$51
sports 24% +$87
other 6% +$25
world 5% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +39.8% +26.4% 39% 34% -0.4%
≤30d 141 -1.4% -10.8% 38% 30% -8.0%
≤90d 141 -1.4% -10.8% 38% 30% -8.0%
all 141 -1.4% -10.8% 38% 30% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 30% -8.0%
10% -19.3% 28% -16.8%
15% -27.1% 26% -24.8%
20% -34.3% 22% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$218
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses53 / 88
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage22d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? No 6¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$8 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +441%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +249%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $10 −$8 -77%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +308%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -92%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $6 −$5 -79%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $23 −$5 -20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -18%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1843%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $6 −$1 -16%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $200 −$69 -35%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $13 +$14 +106%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $51 +$55 +108%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $136 +$49 +36%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $20 +$6 +31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$16 +81%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $31 −$7 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $104 −$100 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $78 −$42 -54%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $4 $0 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $112 −$3 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 +$3 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $30 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $2 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL No 0¢ $0 15h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $5 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 33h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 34h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Solary 4¢ $1 34h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 36h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 57¢ $10 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 37h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.17 · official $2.20 (match) · 377 history records