Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65c4…2e13 sports 166 markets active 3h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$557 (-4%) realized −$588 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%94W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$360
7 days+$415
14 days−$572
30 days−$842
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$1,425
other 42% +$586
crypto 1% +$36
world 0% +$37
finance 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +69.0% +52.9% 67% 67% +53.3%
≤30d 158 +7.6% -2.6% 59% 56% -15.3%
≤90d 159 +7.7% -2.6% 59% 57% -14.8%
all 159 +7.7% -2.6% 59% 57% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 57% -14.8%
10% -11.9% 52% -22.9%
15% -20.4% 46% -30.4%
20% -28.2% 36% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$92 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized−$588
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses94 / 65
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions7
Markets (closed)159 / 166
History coverage31d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 43¢ 99¢ $25 $58 +$33 (+131%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 46¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 81¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$13 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$30 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $51 +$63 +123%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 +$252 +980%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +89%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$58 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $25 +$21 +82%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $254 −$254 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $25 +$20 +79%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 09 $101 +$16 +16%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $25 +$28 +109%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $51 +$22 +44%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $253 −$253 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $253 −$253 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $203 −$203 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $25 +$15 +59%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $253 −$253 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 04 $254 +$256 +101%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 04 $25 +$7 +29%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 04 $51 +$42 +82%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $102 +$102 +101%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $254 −$254 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 31 $100 +$7 +7%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 31 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $253 +$157 +62%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $50 +$21 +41%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 31 $51 +$26 +52%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $251 +$46 +18%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $204 −$204 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $254 −$254 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $305 −$305 -100%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs TDK (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Eu May 30 $26 +$11 +43%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 46¢ $51 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $25 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $25 12h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $25 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $26 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $25 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $25 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $51 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No $26 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $50 32h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $51 32h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $101 41h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $51 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 68¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $25 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 67¢ $101 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 55¢ $25 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $101 8d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $25 9d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 69¢ $253 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $254 10d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 53¢ $51 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 10d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FlyQuest 42¢ $51 10d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 69¢ $51 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.39 · official $231.39 (match) · 358 history records