Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
65 0x65bb…6ee4 economics 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$164 (+17%) realized +$95 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$97
14 days+$96
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$21
economics 32% +$49
other 11% +$95
tech 3% +$8
sports 2% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +45.7% +31.8% 100% 50% +31.2%
≤30d 4 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 25% +18.3%
≤90d 5 -16.0% -24.0% 60% 40% +18.1%
all 5 -16.0% -24.0% 60% 40% +18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 40% +18.1%
10% -31.3% 40% +6.8%
15% -37.9% 20% -3.5%
20% -44.0% 20% -12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$12 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.46 per $1 lost it wins $4.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$521
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage52d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 76¢ 82¢ $254 $275 +$22 (+9%)
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? Yes 68¢ 84¢ $198 $245 +$47 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 29 $109 +$2 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $106 +$95 +90%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $23 −$22 -98%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 8? May 12 $27 +$8 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $520.72 · official $521.11 (match) · 13 history records